Polls Don't Count, Only Voting Does

" - - - Republicans have a built-in turnout advantage on Election Day. White voters often turn out more heavily than other racial and ethnic groups, as do older voters, wealthier voters, and voters who own their own homes. All of those groups vote more heavily Republican than their counterparts: Whites more than nonwhites, older voters more than younger voters, wealthier voters more than poorer voters.

"A recent PRRI poll found that 74 percent of those 65 and older were certain to vote in November, compared with 28 percent of those under 30. That obviously disadvantages Democrats.

Only a quarter of the country identifies as Republican. There are two reasons the party keeps winning anyway.